This Is the Vikings’ Playoff Math at the Moment

Weekly, VikingsZone Tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason from before Week 1 through Week 18.

This Is the Vikings’ Playoff Math Right Now

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized at a single point for reference.

This is the odds meter for the Vikings after Week 15 beat the Chicago Bears. All playoff math is provided for this release by DVOA.

We Completely Missed the Play-offs
Impossible

The Vikings have clinched a playoff spot that cannot be eliminated no matter what.

Worst case scenario, Minnesota would enter the postseason as the No. 7 seed, assuming they lose their next three games and the Washington Commanders win.

Win the NFC North, But Win the No. 1 seed =
10.8%

In this scenario, Minnesota would catch the Lions from behind for the NFC North crown, but the Philadelphia Eagles would finish the season with the same (or better) record as Minnesota and earn the No. 1 seed.

The oddsmakers basically don’t believe the Vikings can catch up to the Lions, causing them to take the No. 2 seed.

Secure Home-Field Advantage Anywhere (#1 Seed) =
14.3%

This is the Holy Grail plan.

Enter Week 18 with the same record as the Lions. Defeat the lions. Gain home field advantage throughout.

Assuming Minnesota can win its remaining three games, the purple team will gain home-field advantage throughout the postseason tournament. They are in danger of “controlling your own destiny.”

Win Rank 6 =
34.6%

Here, Minnesota will likely lose this weekend in Seattle and again at home against the Green Bay Packers.

The Cheese team would move past Minnesota to capture the 5th seed, leaving the Vikings to battle the Washington Commanders for the sixth spot in the conference.

Win the #5 Seed =
38.0%

Minnesota has a two-game lead over the Packers through 15 weeks, and if that lead holds, the fifth-seeded Vikings will be in the playoff bracket near you.

Assuming Minnesota loses just one or two more games with Green Bay out of the lead, this is the most logical landing spot for Kevin O’Connell’s team.

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dustin baker He is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The program, which is prepared with 4-7 episodes per week, includes guests, analysis and opinions on everything related to the purple team. The MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Guilty pleasures listed: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos’, Basset Hounds and The Doors (band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; All contract information provided by OverTheCap.com.