Veterans of Arab uprisings warn Syrians of perils ahead

As jubilant Syrians celebrated the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad this week, dire warnings proliferated on Arab social media: that this joyful moment could lead to a bleak future.

The end of the Assad dynasty at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an armed Islamist group with previous links to al-Qaeda, has deepened alarm even among Arabs who are well aware of the Assad regime’s blood-soaked record.

“Haven’t those who are hopeful for the future of Syria been with us for 14 years?” Ezzedine Fishere, an Egyptian political science professor at Dartmouth University in the US, wrote on Facebook.

Another Egyptian social media user shared the following: “Isn’t what happened in Iraq and then the Arab uprisings (in 2011) enough to be afraid of what’s to come?”

A wave of popular uprisings swept the Arab world in 2011, toppling despots in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and sparking hopes for democratic government and economic prosperity; these hopes were later shattered by new autocracies or civil wars. The uprising in Syria began at the same time, but the government fell only 13 years later.

Zaina Erhaim, a Syrian journalist who moved to London in 2017, said the warnings she received from Tunisian and Egyptian friends were “simplistic and did not take into account the Syrian context”. “It’s as if they’re saying, ‘These poor people are happy, but they don’t know what awaits them.'”

“I’m a little hopeful,” he said. “We Syrians are more aware of our own failures than those of others. “I hope we learn not only from the lessons of others, but also from our own experiences.”

For Syrians, this is a moment of intense hope, albeit with anxiety. Many Syrians are experiencing the same happiness that others in the region felt when they were freed from their oppressors in 2011.

When autocrat Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt for 30 years, resigned in 2011 after 18 days of peaceful protests, enthusiastic crowds flocked to Cairo’s Tahrir Square chanting “Keep your head up, you are Egyptian.”

The Muslim Brotherhood later won parliamentary elections, and in 2012 one of the group’s leaders, Mohammed Morsi, was elected president by a narrow majority. His brief reign alienated many, including pro-revolutionary groups. Secular parties, Mubarak-era elites and a number of Egyptians alarmed by the rise of Islamists agitated against his rule.

This gave then-defense minister and now president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi the opportunity to overthrow Morsi in a 2013 coup with broad popular support. Since then, Egypt’s experiment with democracy has been curtailed, demonstrations banned and little room left for opposition.

Hisham Kassem, an Egyptian broadcaster and critic of the Sisi regime, said the transition failed because Islamists “tried to intimidate the situation and the economy was not taken seriously.”

“The military was standing on the sidelines and was not actually ready to give up power, but the failure was largely due to the poor performance of the country’s political forces,” he said.

Tunisia’s fledgling democracy survived a decade after its own uprising, but collapsed in 2021 when Kais Saied, a democratically elected populist president, shut down parliament, rewrote the constitution to concentrate power in his own hands and began jailing critics.

The autocratic change was welcomed by Tunisians tired of chaotic policies, falling living standards and ineffective government. In October, Saied won the last presidential election with 90 percent of the vote after jailing the most credible of the two candidates allowed to run against him.

Tunisian political scientist Olfa Lamloum said that the lesson to be learned from Tunisia is: “Democratic freedoms cannot survive without the foundations of a dignified life.

“The protests of the unemployed and others over the last 10 years have been about social and economic rights,” he said. “People should see their lives change for the better.”

Following the 2011 uprising in Libya that overthrew Muammar Gaddafi, the country was divided into two rival governments. In 2019, they experienced a civil war in which Russia and regional powers armed and supported different sides.

Rival ruling elites have since settled into a dysfunctional coexistence, financing themselves by siphoning Libya’s oil revenues.

Analysts say Syria’s course is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of other so-called “Arab Spring” countries. Fragmentation under different armed rebel groups and a mosaic of minorities means the challenges will be different.

Moreover, the collapse of the Assad regime followed a 13-year civil war in which half a million people were killed, mostly by the regime, and millions more became refugees.

Assad’s brutal suppression of peaceful demonstrations in 2011 turned the Syrian revolution into an armed uprising in which Islamist groups eventually became the most powerful. Assad invited foreign allies: initially Iran and Iran-backed militants including Hezbollah, then Russia, whose air force bombed rebel-held areas.

Following the fall of Assad, ISIS still has active cells in some parts of Syria; US-backed Kurds established an autonomous region in the northeast; Türkiye, which controls parts of northern Syria, supports other rebels to keep Kurdish militants under control. Ankara sees Syrian Kurdish militants as an extension of the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, which has been fighting the Turkish state for four decades.

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, leader of the Sunni HTS, has sought to rebrand himself as a moderate Islamist who would not trample on the rights of Syria’s minorities, including Christians and Alawites who form the basis of the Assad regime. The Assad family itself was Alawite, a branch of Shiite Islam.

But while the United States has described both itself and its group as terrorists, it has not promised democracy or outlined a vision for the future.

Syrian writer and political dissident Yasin Haj Salih, who was imprisoned for 16 years, wrote on Facebook that the “new Syria” “cannot be a state ruled by Islamist Sunni Assad.” . . It is a system in which people remain followers without having political rights and public freedoms, including freedom of religious belief.”

There are also fears that Jolani may fail to unite the country, leading to rebel groups fighting over the spoils of Assad’s devastated state, reigniting conflict and foreign intervention.

Paul Salem, vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Syria’s future would likely be “bumpy” but that it was a positive sign that the Syrian state, unlike the Libyan state after Gaddafi’s ouster, was not melting down.

“Also be careful, opposition forces protect all government offices and all public institutions. “They don’t attack anyone,” he said.

Salem said Syria’s neighbors, including Turkey, “are not interested in a failed state” on their doorstep. He said the existence of US-backed Kurdish militants and a self-governing Kurdish region could become a problem, but that this could be managed with “good diplomacy between Washington and Ankara”.

“Although welcomed and celebrated, removing a tyrant is certainly very different from transitioning to something better,” Salem said.

“But in the case of Syria, you cannot blame the Syrians for the extreme evil of the Assad regime. He had to go.”